Risk Under Pressure
A static hourly stress test for decision support, using illustrative Aave V3 and Morpho scenarios.
Open the simulatorThe Precipice
The supplied dataset contains 24 hourly observations. Across that window, price reached a 27.1% drawdown from the opening observation and gas peaked at 681.4 Gwei.
These are observations in the supplied case-study inputs, not forecasts, live-market claims, or evidence of within-hour execution.
Scenario Analysis
Choose a lending-market scenario and set entry LTV and protection buffer. The model is static-only: at each hourly observation, the observed liquidation threshold is checked before stop-loss using the selected market threshold.
Liquidated
Trigger hour: 04:00 UTC
$311
Illustrative end-of-day unprotected comparison: $413
Implication: The selected buffer would exit before the liquidation threshold at the triggering observation; this is a scenario result, not a deployment guarantee. Hourly observations cannot establish intra-hour execution order.
The Logic
Recommendation: use a static protection buffer as a reviewable control, then validate assumptions against current protocol configuration and finer-grained execution data before deployment.
Rationale
Earlier protection can preserve more equity when LTV rises rapidly, while the buffer remains explicit and adjustable.
KPI
Track outcome, trigger hour, scenario exit equity, observed drawdown, and peak gas for each scenario.
Limitation
This is hourly historical scenario analysis. It uses conservative liquidation-first ordering at each hourly row; hourly data cannot establish intra-hour order, forecast prices, or guarantee execution.